Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1001.158726 1148.704105 1318.786422 1531.285257 1792.417537 2106.490821 2.518481e+03
2024-10-13 777.359399 955.795244 1182.354077 1497.992724 1937.959890 2548.397781 3.496092e+03
2024-10-20 664.119510 848.658339 1096.218792 1464.194165 2019.080091 2865.144391 4.345205e+03
2024-10-27 575.728305 757.399274 1011.580372 1409.138790 2048.224284 3103.760760 5.158389e+03
2024-11-03 537.927103 728.231752 1005.903355 1463.436531 2250.267271 3668.925396 6.794260e+03
2024-11-10 502.286292 696.443962 989.961334 1495.906259 2419.899497 4226.866871 8.722179e+03
2024-11-17 471.161568 667.008409 972.436915 1520.613525 2578.670532 4814.660668 1.110471e+04
2024-11-24 435.629603 626.614462 931.714337 1496.983351 2637.721202 5209.085308 1.326695e+04
2024-12-01 414.169102 606.076687 920.776382 1524.665726 2806.190037 5920.535468 1.706943e+04
2024-12-08 398.885313 593.808507 921.974736 1574.733534 3034.879249 6885.190939 2.297196e+04
2024-12-15 380.015225 573.679484 906.846292 1589.704440 3187.364604 7715.413998 2.961658e+04
2024-12-22 358.804105 547.712616 878.364230 1572.723913 3258.703097 8339.747098 3.641158e+04
2024-12-29 344.816299 534.286841 873.772737 1610.837075 3495.956573 9706.014145 5.196973e+04
2025-01-05 321.512803 502.801743 832.388244 1563.135330 3495.521810 10249.064692 6.367464e+04
2025-01-12 302.531321 477.447714 800.066408 1530.547582 3528.873704 10957.926820 8.055470e+04
2025-01-19 282.507068 448.790722 758.711453 1471.309889 3470.376815 11259.561338 9.501665e+04
2025-01-26 276.367182 445.034839 766.285374 1529.109079 3787.056839 13546.116886 1.607715e+05
2025-02-02 268.308866 437.034123 764.364191 1563.490481 4043.495612 15838.160262 2.722192e+05
2025-02-09 260.084834 428.073845 759.510330 1589.731254 4284.195511 18368.782963 4.885419e+05
2025-02-16 248.146284 411.172008 736.338458 1564.646817 4334.067893 19784.360208 7.511526e+05
2025-02-23 241.501968 404.089857 733.591905 1594.029023 4602.376197 23180.434283 1.746401e+06
2025-03-02 237.029614 400.934009 739.071731 1647.196202 4990.722696 28356.358752 7.081910e+06
2025-03-09 230.104560 392.413890 731.804740 1663.100970 5233.404847 32856.525966 4.380743e+07